Total Fertility Rates: Global, Religious, and Regional Insights with a Deep Dive into India

Introduction

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measures the average number of children a woman would bear if current age-specific fertility rates persisted throughout her reproductive years. A TFR of approximately 2.1 is the replacement level needed to maintain a stable population without immigration. Rates above this drive population growth, while lower rates signal potential decline. TFR varies widely due to factors like education, economic development, healthcare, and cultural norms. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of global TFR by country and religion, a detailed breakdown of India’s state-wise and religion-wise TFR, and an exploration of the underlying causes, drawing on the latest available data.

Global TFR by Country

As of 2025, the global average TFR is approximately 2.24, reflecting a steady decline from historical levels. 68 High fertility persists in sub-Saharan Africa due to limited access to education and contraception, while low rates dominate in East Asia and Europe, driven by urbanization, high living costs, and delayed childbearing.

Highest TFR Countries (2025):

• Chad: 5.94
• Somalia: 5.91
• Democratic Republic of the Congo: 5.90
• Central African Republic: 5.81
• Niger: 5.79
• Mali: 5.42
• Angola: 4.95
• Burundi: 4.68
• Afghanistan: 4.66
• Mozambique: 4.62 68

Lowest TFR Countries (2025):

• Macao SAR, China: 0.69
• Hong Kong SAR, China: 0.74
• South Korea: 0.75
• Saint Barthélemy: 0.83
• Taiwan: 0.86
• Puerto Rico: 0.94
• Singapore: 0.96
• Holy See: 1.00
• Ukraine: 1.00
• Japan: 1.23 68

These contrasts highlight a global trend toward lower fertility, with projections indicating further declines by 2050, particularly in high-income nations. 27

TFR by Religion Worldwide

Religious affiliation influences fertility, often through cultural and socio-economic factors. Based on 2010-2015 data (the most comprehensive global benchmark), TFR by religion is:

• Muslims: 3.1
• Christians: 2.7
• Hindus: 2.4
• Jews: 2.3
• Folk religions: 1.8
• Unaffiliated: 1.7
• Other religions: 1.7
• Buddhists: 1.6 69

Muslims have the highest TFR, driven by younger populations and higher fertility in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with a projected 73% population increase by 2050. 54 Lower rates among Buddhists and the unaffiliated reflect secularization and urbanization in regions where these groups are prevalent. Secular trends are reducing fertility across all groups, though devout communities may maintain higher rates. 67

TFR in India by State

India’s national TFR has reached 2.0 per NFHS-5 (2019-21), hitting replacement level and marking a significant demographic transition. 1 However, state-wise disparities persist, reflecting variations in education, urbanization, and healthcare access.

State and Union Territory TFR (NFHS-5):

• Sikkim: 1.1
• Andaman & Nicobar Islands: 1.3
• Goa: 1.3
• Ladakh: 1.3
• Chandigarh: 1.4
• Jammu & Kashmir: 1.4
• Lakshadweep: 1.4
• Puducherry: 1.5
• Delhi: 1.6
• Punjab: 1.6
• West Bengal: 1.6
• Andhra Pradesh: 1.7
• Himachal Pradesh: 1.7
• Karnataka: 1.7
• Maharashtra: 1.7
• Nagaland: 1.7
• Tripura: 1.7
• Arunachal Pradesh: 1.8
• Kerala: 1.8
• Odisha: 1.8
• Tamil Nadu: 1.8
• Telangana: 1.8
• Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu: 1.8
• Assam: 1.9
• Gujarat: 1.9
• Haryana: 1.9
• Mizoram: 1.9
• Uttarakhand: 1.9
• Madhya Pradesh: 2.0
• Rajasthan: 2.0
• Manipur: 2.2
• Chhattisgarh: 2.3
• Jharkhand: 2.3
• Uttar Pradesh: 2.4
• Meghalaya: 2.9
• Bihar: 3.0 70

High-TFR states like Bihar (3.0) and Meghalaya (2.9) are characterized by lower literacy and economic development, while low-TFR states like Sikkim (1.1) and Goa (1.3) benefit from advanced social indicators. 7 Southern states, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu (1.8), have maintained sub-replacement rates for decades due to robust education and health systems. 9

TFR in India by Religion Nationally

India’s religious communities show converging fertility rates, with all groups declining significantly. According to NFHS-5 (2019-21), national TFR by religion is:

• Hindus: 1.94
• Muslims: 2.36
• Christians: 1.88
• Sikhs: 1.61
• Jains: 1.60
• Buddhists/Neo-Buddhists: 1.39
• Others: 2.15 21

Muslims have the highest TFR, but the gap with Hindus has narrowed from 1.1 in 1992 to 0.42 in 2019-21, with Muslims declining faster (35% vs. 30% for Hindus over two decades). 72 Christians, Sikhs, Jains, and Buddhists are below replacement, with Buddhists at “lowest-low” levels (<1.3), reflecting high education and urbanization among these groups. 72 Projections suggest near-convergence by 2030. 72

TFR in India by Religion and State in Detail

State-wise TFR by religion reveals significant regional influences, with socio-economic factors often outweighing religious identity. NFHS-5 provides detailed data primarily for Hindus and Muslims, with limited but insightful figures for other groups. Socio-economic status accounts for 85% of fertility variations, with religion contributing only 15%. 72 Below is a detailed breakdown for key states and religions, focusing on available data:

• Assam: Hindus 1.6, Muslims 2.4. Muslims have seen a sharp decline from 3.6 in 2005-06, but rural poverty and lower education sustain a higher TFR. 47
• Bihar: Hindus 2.9, Muslims 3.6. Both groups exceed replacement, reflecting Bihar’s low development indices, with Muslims showing slightly higher rates due to educational disparities. 47
• Jammu & Kashmir: Hindus 1.32, Muslims 1.45. Both are lowest-low, driven by high literacy and healthcare access, with minimal religious differences. 47
• Kerala: Muslims ~2.3, Hindus lower (state average 1.8). Muslims are near replacement, with high education reducing gaps; Christians (~1.6) also below replacement. 47
• Tamil Nadu: Muslims below replacement (<2.1), Hindus lower (state average 1.8). Progressive policies and high female literacy minimize differentials; Christians and others similarly low. 35
• Uttar Pradesh: Muslims ~2.7-3.0, Hindus ~2.3 (based on patterns). The gap is narrowing, but high TFR persists in less developed districts, particularly among Muslims. 36
• West Bengal: Muslims ~2.1, Hindus ~1.5 (gap 0.56). Rapid convergence, with 75% of districts showing Muslim TFR below replacement. 36
• Delhi: Hindus below 2.1, Muslims converging (~2.0). Hindus show the steepest decline, driven by urban education and employment. 36
• Jharkhand: Muslims moderately high (~2.5-2.8), Hindus lower (~2.2). Gaps are notable in high-fertility districts with lower development. 36
• Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka: Muslims intermediate (>2.1 but <3.0) in 40-45% of districts; Hindus more advanced in transition (~1.7-1.9). Christians and Jains typically below replacement. 36
• Punjab: Sikhs ~1.6, Hindus ~1.5, Muslims slightly higher (~1.8). All below replacement, reflecting high development. 45
• Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand: Hindus and Muslims both below or near 2.0, with small gaps due to high literacy. 35
• Northeastern States (e.g., Nagaland, Mizoram): Christians (~1.7-1.9) dominate and align with state averages, reflecting moderate development. 35
• Buddhists and Jains: Lowest-low TFR (<1.3) in states like Maharashtra (Buddhists) and Gujarat (Jains), driven by high education and small community sizes. 35

Muslims in southern states (e.g., Tamil Nadu, Kerala) often have lower TFR than Hindus in northern states (e.g., Bihar, UP), underscoring regional development’s dominance over religion. 23

Causes of TFR Variations

TFR variations arise from a complex interplay of factors:

• Education and Women’s Empowerment: Higher female education correlates with lower TFR globally and in India, as educated women delay marriage and prioritize smaller families. In Bihar, low female literacy (49.7%) drives high TFR, while Kerala’s near-universal literacy supports low rates. 39
• Economic Development: Higher incomes increase child-rearing costs, reducing TFR. Urbanization shifts preferences toward smaller families due to space and lifestyle constraints. 50
• Healthcare and Family Planning: Reduced infant mortality and increased contraceptive use (e.g., 9.5% rise among Muslims since NFHS-4) lower TFR by ensuring child survival and enabling choice. 40
• Cultural and Religious Norms: While Muslims historically favored larger families, education and modernization are reducing these preferences. Religious influence is secondary, explaining only 15% of fertility gaps in India. 41
• Regional Disparities: In India, states with low development (e.g., Bihar, UP) have higher TFR due to poverty and limited family planning access. Conversely, southern states’ advanced systems drive sub-replacement rates. 46
• Policy Impact: Government initiatives promoting sterilization and contraception have accelerated declines, particularly among Muslims in progressive states. 45

Conclusion

Global TFR trends show a shift toward lower fertility, with India reaching replacement level at 2.0. State and religion-wise analyses reveal that socio-economic factors like education and healthcare access outweigh religious identity in driving fertility differences. As India’s religious communities converge toward lower TFR, policies must address aging populations in low-TFR states like Sikkim while supporting high-TFR regions like Bihar through targeted investments in education and health to ensure sustainable demographic balance.

References

1. NFHS-5 (2019-21): India’s national TFR (2.0) and demographic transition data.
2. NFHS-5 (2019-21): State-wise TFR for high (e.g., Bihar: 3.0) and low (e.g., Sikkim: 1.1) fertility states.
3. NFHS-5 or related study: Southern states’ (Kerala, Tamil Nadu) low TFR (1.8) due to education and health systems.
4. NFHS-5 (2019-21): National TFR by religion: Hindus (1.94), Muslims (2.36), Christians (1.88), Sikhs (1.61), Jains (1.60), Buddhists (1.39).
5. Demographic study: Regional development outweighs religion; Muslims in southern states have lower TFR than Hindus in northern states.
6. UN/World Bank (2022-2025): Global TFR decline projections for 2050.
7. NFHS-5 or related study: Religion-wise TFR in states like Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, and northeastern states; low TFR for Buddhists/Jains.
8. NFHS-5 or analysis: State-specific TFR for Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka; Hindu-Muslim gaps.
9. Pew Research (2010-2015): Global TFR by religion (Muslims: 3.1, Christians: 2.7, Hindus: 2.4) and education’s role in lowering fertility.
10. Health study: Lower infant mortality and contraceptive use reduce TFR.
11. Demographic study: Cultural/religious norms (e.g., Muslims) favor larger families, but modernization reduces this.
12. NFHS-5 or analysis: Hindu-Muslim TFR gap narrowed (1.1 to 0.42); socio-economic factors drive 85% of variation; convergence by 2030.
13. NFHS-5 or family planning study: Punjab’s TFR (Sikhs: 1.6, Hindus: 1.5); Muslim contraceptive use up 9.5%; education gaps.
14. Regional study: High TFR in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh due to poverty and low family planning access.
15. NFHS-5 or state analysis: Hindu and Muslim TFR in Assam (1.6, 2.4), Bihar (2.9, 3.6), Jammu & Kashmir (1.32, 1.45), Kerala (~2.3 Muslims).
16. Economic study: Economic growth and urbanization lower TFR due to higher child-rearing costs.
17. Pew Research (2010-2015): Muslim population growth (73% by 2050) due to high TFR and young age structure.
18. Sociological study: Secularization reduces fertility across religions globally.
19. UN/World Bank (2025): Global TFR (2.24); highest (Chad: 5.94) and lowest (Macao: 0.69) TFR countries.
20. Pew Research (2010-2015): Global TFR by religion (Muslims: 3.1, Christians: 2.7, Hindus: 2.4, etc.).
21. NFHS-5 (2019-21): Full state/union territory TFR list (Sikkim: 1.1 to Bihar: 3.0).
22. NFHS-5 or analysis: National religion-wise TFR, Hindu-Muslim gap, low TFR for Christians/Sikhs/Jains/Buddhists, religion’s minor role (15%).